The remnants of Hurricane Debbie have cleared out and set up a multi-million, two-state grass festival so inconspicuous you’d think they were running the day down at Aqueduct in front of the resident crowd. Put off for a week, we finally get the second jewel of the New York Turf Trinity off the launching pad and today’s re-writing of the G1 Saratoga Derby now features the G1 Fourstardave, a win and you’re in for the Breeders’ Cup FanDuel Mile, as the opening act for our feature race for 3YO colts.
We also swing down Appalachia for three of the historic races of the late Arlington Park, where Colonial Downs now plays host to the most prestigious graded stakes race bearing the name of racing’s most prestigious horse, the G2 Secretariat, as well as the G2 Beverly D., a win and you’re in for the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf and the main event, the G1 Arlington Million.
Saratoga
Race One - 4-3-1 | 6.5f | Allowance 50k (3YO+)
This is one of those situations where I have plenty of reservations about 4 She’s Always Rosie (Linda Rice/Jose Lezcano) entering this spot at odds-on making her third start off a claim for Rice, but I’m also not looking to bite into my bankroll trying to beat this Tapiture filly. Linda took this one out of her first dirt start against 30k MCs and immediately wheeled her up to MSW company off a layoff. She was rewarded as this filly led every step of the way before taking it to similar 50k allowance company only to be nailed in the stretch last out. I’m not convinced this is strong value, but she does seem to be the most likely winner here. 3 Palmetto Fury (Saffie Joseph Jr./Tyler Gaffalione) would be my main alternative if I was looking for one, as I do think she has a chance to be the controlling speed moving up off her maiden breaker against 25k claimers. I can’t really back her confidently on that basis, but Saffie has been firing bullets while Gaffalione continues his ascent up the jockey standings for the meet. 1 Oh My Mia (Tom Amoss/Jose Ortiz) was 0 for 8 before dropping to MC and getting the job done first out for a tag, pulling off in a fashion that at least made it look like she’s figured a thing or two out about this whole racing thing.
Race Two - 2-1-5-3 | 6.5f | Claiming 75k (3YO)
Unfortunately my morning double is as chalky as a roll of tums, but I couldn’t get around 2 Proprietary Trade (Chad Brown/Flavien Prat) getting back to lasix today dropping down from an effort in the non-graded Jersey Shore where he clearly tired trying to keep pace. Brown has a strong resume of getting the job done in first time claiming situations and his son of Practical Joke seems to be the controlling speed. 1 Apollo Code (Jorge Delgado/Ricardo Santana Jr.) has looked a bit out-classed in his past two tries against allowance types, but he was far more competitive against conditional claimers down at Monmouth late in the spring. I think he should catch a nice stalking trip on the outside and he should appreciate rating a pace. 5 Etendre (Carlos David/Irad Ortiz Jr.) is another getting back to a lasix off a try against non graded stakes horses where he very clearly ran out of gas in the stretch. He looks to be a tractable type for David and I think he’ll have to be as I don’t see him clearing the short-priced favorite. 3 Iridescent (George Weaver/Manny Franco) could have the speed to press Proprietary Trade on the front end, but he looks to be more of a pace presence first off a claim from Brad Cox, though he did fire a very nice work over the track last week in preparation for his first try for Weaver.
Race Three - 6-4-5-3 | 6f | Claiming 40k
6 Starship Defiant (David Jacobson/Ramon Vazquez) comes in third off a layoff shipping in from a third place effort at Delaware Park that should have added some much-needed fitness ahead of this spot. Two-back she looked to tire badly after setting a fairly even pace, but she seems to be trending in the right direction and could play out as the controlling speed if she’s able to clear the field from the outside. She’s yet to hit the board in two career starts at the Spa, but this race sets up well for her to buck that trend. 4 It Takes Heart (Wayne Potts/Tyler Gaffalione) has been very successful up at Saratoga, winning both of her career starts here including her last in which she was claimed from Rob Falcone. I’m not sure if it’s possible to improve a horse coming from Falcone right now, and she takes a significant step up the class ladder, but Potts just delivered in the G2 Troy first off a claim from Mike Maker, so doubt him at your peril. 5 Willow Bend (Rob Atras/Manny Franco) took a try against 80k OCs in her first try off a claim for Rob Atras and seemed a bit overmatched, but two-back she was far more competitive against similar, winning at the 50k level at Churchill back in late May. She may be a cut-below the main contenders in terms of both pace and speed figures, but I do think she’ll sit the right kind of trip if the speed ducks out and she’s guaranteed to get a strong ride from Franco. 3 Rachel’s Rock (Carlos David/Irad Ortiz Jr.) has plenty of races good enough to win this against tougher, but she saw her form take a decided nose-dive in two races prior to a long layoff and she’s generally the type I like to fade at a short price coming off the bench.
Race Four - 8-9-7-4 | 6f | Maiden Claiming 20k (3YO+)
While none of these options really scream “appealing betting opportunity,” 8 Thedreamcontinues (George Weaver/Irad Ortiz Jr.) may come the closest if the Irad factor can avoid chewing away all of the 10-1 ML. This 4YO Always Dreaming filly seemed to basically duck out the back after pressing the pace in the first turn on debut, and though Weaver doesn’t have the strongest numbers cutting back from route to sprint, I’m willing to give her a second chance taking 20k class drop now having some experience. 9 Save Us Melania (Saffie Joseph Jr./Tyler Gaffalione) ran well first off a claim from Danny Gargan in her debut for Saffie down at Gulfstream, and she seems to have taken to the track firing two strong works building up to this spot. This isn’t the kind of race where I’d want to take a stand on a short price, but she’s also the short price I’d want to stand against the least. 7 Negra Gata (Linda Rice/Jose Lezcano) has been a pace factor in two tries off a claim for Rice and now takes a deep dip down the class ladder that usually signifies good things for this barn. We haven’t seen this filly since late October, but the significant layoff means she may have improved from 3 to 4. 4 That’sthefactjack (Domenick Schettino/Romero Maragh) looked to be putting things together in two starts on the dirt before connections tried her again on the turf to little success. In her one effort on a fast dirt track she was a significant presence, losing by less than a length after winning a pace duel.
Race Five - 2-8-10-3 | 1 1/16M (TURF) | Maiden Claiming 40k (3YO+)
Another rather ambiguous maiden claiming affair, but I’m willing to give 2 Judge Rules (Rudy Rodriguez/Manny Franco) another chance having made a strong effort at this level two-back downstate before catching a wide trip losing ground the whole way around. Franco should be able to tuck in more easily drawing inside and I think the pace should be at least fair for him to make his run. 8 Cattani (Michelle Nevin/Flavien Prat) moved forward second time out trying turf for the first time back in October and he’s been laid off his entire 4YO season up to this point. 4YOs making their first start on turf can always be scouted for improvement and he’s been building up to his return since late May. 10 Mazzei (James Bond/Joel Rosario) has spent his first three starts short distance sprinting against special weight company and today Bond flips the deck dropping him for a tag in a route. He also takes blinkers off which could be a play to hope that speed becomes more effective going longer, and Bond is always dangerous on his home turf. 3 Within View (Rachel Sells/Julien Leparoux) put in a solid performance two back in his first try for a maiden claiming tag on the lawn and then was dealt a disastrous start last time out that effectively took him out of the race from the word go. He’s been zig zagging since being claimed by Sells and should be coming to a better effort today.
Race Six - 6-5-4-2 | 7f | Maiden 100k (2YO)
6 Quickick (Tom Amoss/Dylan Davis) makes her debut at the challenging 7/8ths distance for a quality first time out trainer, and I think the added ground should suit the McKinzie influence. Damsire Graeme Hill boasts a 15% FTW rate and this 550k filly has been ripping up the Saratoga track since shipping in. You know I like to mine for those buried Bill Mott firsters and 5 Table Flirt (Bill Mott/Junior Alvarado) has the potential look. Very precocious bloodlines on both her sire side by Constitution (17% FTW) and carrying Into Mischief (15% FTW) on the bottom. She fired a nice 4f work mid July and has been taking maintenance works since. 4 Trading Strategy (Chad Brown/Flavien Prat) won’t have any shortage of backers as a 500k Quality Road filly sporting the Klaravich colors. Obviously no one will be surprised if Chad delivers this one on first asking, but I think there could be value in others. 2 La Carra (Mark Casse/Jose Ortiz) put in a nice effort setting the pace two back going 5.5f and should appreciate getting some added ground to accentuate that speed; never underestimate experienced speed, especially if allowed to get bold on the front end.
Race Seven - 3-7-2-6 | 6.5f | Claiming 12.5k
We really have a motley crew of races on this undercard, but I did find interest in a price here with 3 Nottoway (Lisa Reed/Jacqueline Davis), one of few bringing strong form into this spot shipping in from Finger Lakes, which can often be erroneously dismissed as an uncompetitive circuit at this level. This 9YO gelding brings a jockey that knows him and knows this track very well along with tactical speed that should allow him to dictate terms or sit off and make a decisive run. 7 Mister J T (Rob Atras/Irad Ortiz Jr.) has been trending in the wrong direction in recent starts, but he’s been given a solid blow since moving back over to Atras, who’s teamed with Irad to get good results out of this guy before. 2 Joking Way (Jesus Romero/Romero Maragh) tries to get back in form for the law firm of Romero and Romero, and this class drop may just hit the right way should he get some of the pace he’s been crying out for in recent efforts. These last two may be burners, but I had a much easier time talking myself into them vs. 6 Beach Boy Al (Jeremiah Englehart/Dylan Davis) who equally lacks form, but will be a short price thanks to Englehart’s success at the meet. He did fire a nice work at Finger Lakes leading into this, so it shouldn’t be shocking if he runs back to his better form today.
Race Eight - 7-9-4-1 | 5.5f (TURF) | Mahony Stakes 150k (3YO)
I can’t really blame anybody trying to get around the favorite 7 Mansa Musa (Bill Mott/Junior Alvarado) in this spot as this race is very competitive, but I had a tough time getting around this improving Mott colt who earned a strong base of class as a 2YO overseas before shipping to start his 3YO campaign in the states. He’s been competitive in each offering hitting the exacta in two efforts at the Spa and gets solid class relief sliding down from the G3 Quick Call. 9 Reef Runner (David Fawkes/Tyler Gaffalione) has been putting up strong results down at Gulfstream and ships in for less heralded connections that shouldn’t be taken lightly. I don’t always love Gulfstream turf horses shipping up to Saratoga, but I think you’ll get a solid overlay given this one’s ability. 4 Apollo Ten (Christophe Clement/Manny Franco) came through against non graded stakes company down at Monmouth last month and ships in at a generous price for a Clement barn looking to catch a break as they’ve won just 6% of starts at Saratoga, but have hit the board underneath in 38%. This son of Violence should have the class to ship in and do well here and his tactical speed should help. 1 Fandom (Brad Cox/Jose Ortiz) got the job done two back for Wesley Ward in the non graded Palisades stakes before moving to Brad Cox ahead of his try in the Quick Call. He took a bit of traffic at the onset and Cox will put blinkers back on in what should be a rebound performance.
Race Nine - 10-6-1-9 | 7f | Claiming 25k [n3L] (3YO+)
10 That’s Money (Todd Pletcher/Manny Franco) didn’t seem to take to the off-going in the non-graded Mike Lee back at the June meet, but his three efforts a non-sealed track have been strong enough to put this field comfortably in the rearview mirror. Franco will have to work out a trip likely having to stalk from the outside, but if he can secure a position in the two or three path he should have enough horse to finish the deal. 6 Twelth Man (Mertkan Kantarmaci/Romero Maragh) runs back at the same level he was claimed in last time out when he looked a bit rusty first off a layoff. He’s run past efforts that are more than fast enough to compete here, but he’ll have to prove he can get back to his best running with his speed trending in the wrong direction. 1 J J’s Joker (Joe Sharp/Tyler Gaffalione) hasn’t gotten anything together in three starts for Joe Sharp, but today he’ll get back to his preferred surface off of a failed turf experiment. He will occasionally throw a number that can win here, but he simply hasn’t done it since the barn change. 9 Eirik Ridge (James Ryerson/Dylan Davis) does bring a run of solid form in from Finger Lakes having hit the exacta in four straight before moving over to Ryerson in mid-July. He shouldn’t be outclassed having shipped effectively into Keeneland earlier this year.
Race 10 - 7-6-4-1 | 1M (TURF) | Grade 1 Fourstardave Stakes 500k (3YO+)
The Grade 1 bearing the name of the famed “Sultan of Saratoga,” who won a race up at the Spa every year from 1987 to 1994, this is an exceptionally competitive race even with the unfortunate scratch of Master of the Seas. There’s no doubt the two short priced favorites are strong and could absolutely win here, but I think 7 More Than Looks (Cherie DeVaux/Irad Ortiz Jr.) is the screaming value of the race assuming he’s the clear-cut third choice. We last saw him as a 3YO getting bottled up in the G1 Breeders’ Cup Mile, and while I’m not saying he would have won that day with a better trip, I think he foreshadowed his ability finishing within two BL of Master of the Seas, Mawj, Casa Creed and others. Most importantly, as a 3YO he ran a buried 3.75 Thoro-Graph figure on a good surface in the G2 Hall of Fame here, and followed that up by running a 1 in the non-graded Jefferson Cup at Churchill Downs. He’s coming off a long layoff, but if he’s exceedingly dangerous if he pairs that 3YO top first off the bench, and you know how much I love betting 4YOs to improve first time on the grass. 6 Ottoman Fleet (Charlie Appleby/Flavien Prat) is a worthy favorite sporting the Godolphin Blue wheeling out of a win in the G2 Wise Dan. You don’t need me to tell you that an Appleby horse is live in a G1 turf race, but this one is certainly fast enough to win, I simply don’t see him as a major candidate to move forward as most Sea the Stars tend to hit their level at 4. So far, this one fits that pattern, but he’s clearly the horse to beat if More Than Looks needs a race off the layoff. 4 Carl Spackler (Chad Brown/Tyler Gaffalione) has gotten a lot better in three starts at 4, pairing a new top 2 in three successive stakes races. He was disappointing to some in the G3 Poker on Belmont day, but TG players knew that race was better than it looked at he unsurprisingly rebounded to win the G3 Kelso last month. Carl Spackler is one of the harder reads for me from a pattern POV; on one hand, he’s got a beautiful pattern of paired 2s for Chad Brown. On the other hand, he’s already developed three points from 3 to 4, and I think he needs another forward move to win this one. I clearly respect his ability and he can win, but the value of this race outside of the 7 may be to play Carl Spackler off the board in the exacta. 1 Strong Quality (Mark Casse/Dylan Davis) has run his best races on dirt, running a new top of a 1.5 TG two back at Churchill, but the best of his turf form suggests he may be able to pair up on the lawn. It’s hard to ask him to win against the class of this field, but he could be a decent punt to hit the board underneath.
Race 11 - 6-5-4-1 | 1 3/16M (TURF) | Grade 1 Saratoga Derby Invitational 600k (3YO)
A lot changed in this race since we last handicapped the second jewel of the NY Turf Trinity, but my major opinion about this race has not changed: I’m fading the duo exiting the Belmont Derby. I simply don’t think those horses are fast enough, and that includes my fourth choice 1 Legend of Time (Charlie Appleby/Flavien Prat) who I obviously respect, but having already made four points of development from 2 to 3 and commanding such a short price, I’m absolutely willing to let him beat me if he moves forward again. I’m even more enthusiastic to let the sharp pick 3 Royal Majesty beat me. I love Bill Mott and Junior Alvarado, and there’s no value in kicking an 8-1 shot (though I expect that price to be about half come post time), but if this horse who’s already developed 7.5 pts from 2 to 3 beats me, congrats to two of my favorite guys in racing. They’ll beat me.
I’m sticking with my top choice 6 Deterministic (Christophe Clement/Joel Rosario) fort the same reasons I picked him last week, and now the top two horses I was wary of are no longer in the fold. Deterministic obviously has a measure of comfort up at Saratoga breaking his maiden here impressively on dirt. He then runs that big effort in the Gotham, a 2.5 TG, bounces severely in the Wood Memorial and runs a disappointing comeback off race in the Peter Pan. Clement tries him at a mile on turf and instantly gets a better number than anything Legend of Time or Royal Majesty have done. He got that number going 8f opposed to 9.5f, and there are some questions as to whether or not Deterministic is a true distance horse, but he’s a major win candidate if he pairs that last effort. If he moves forward or dare say pairs his best dirt number…this could actually be a laugher. 5 Fulmineo (Arnaud Delacour/Tyler Gaffalione) opts for this spot over the G2 Secretariat, and I actually think that’s a very savvy move from a sheets POV. This 3YO son of Bolt d’Oro has a really nice pattern, but he’s already developed four points from 2 to 3. It’s tough for me to ask him to make the jump he needed to win down in Virginia, but it’s not at all beyond him to run faster than the two from the Belmont Derby. Pace is the only concern as far as I’m concerned, but he’s shown tractability in his past two races. 4 Carson’s Run (Clement/Dylan Davis) was a horse I didn’t really like in last week’s configuration, but he makes a lot more sense in this drawing. He ran a solid, steady pattern of four races at 2, not too fast, not too slow, and then came out and paired that effort first time at 3. Last time out at Monmouth, we saw that three point jump you’d want to see from a nice racehorse, exceeding his Cupid expectations by 2 points. I’m not willing to bet he gets a lot faster, but without the O’Brien shipper and Shug’s horse, his best makes him a major player.
Picks for the All-Stakes Pick 3 at Colonial Downs updated by 3:30 PM
Colonial Downs
Race Nine - 1-4-8-2 | 1M (TURF) | Grade 2 Secretariat Stakes (3YO)
The landscape of this race has changed quite a bit since it was originally drawn, but 1 Brilliant Berti (Cherie DeVaux/Frankie Dettori) remains the standout moving in off of a massive stride in the American Derby at Churchill Downs. This son of Noble Mission debuted at 3 and paired 10s in his first three efforts, then exploded first time off lasix in stakes company running a 4.75 TG figure that seriously overlays this field on sheer resume. Because of the day postponement, Brian Hernandez Jr. stayed at Ellis Park to honor his mounts, but I can’t say Frankie taking the mount is any sort of a downgrade. This one is well-rested and well-pointed to this spot, and while his last race was a significant progression, that could just be his development and there’s no real reason to bet a bounce, especially as he figures to get a very strong pace to rate inside. 4 In a Jam (Mark Casse/Antonio Gallardo) capped off his 2YO campaign running a solid 11 going a route of ground on the turf for the first time, and he’s made a small, measured progression in six races at 3. I’d be willing to bet there’s still a forward move in him, and given how Preservationist offspring average 6 points of development from 2 to 3, I could see him getting to about a 5 with his best effort. That wouldn’t leave Brilliant Berti much room to move back off his last shot.
8 Mattingly (Joseph Orseno/Paco Lopez) has never run a bad race in his nine race career filled with mostly short distance sprints, but he jumped up to a TG 8 stretching out to 7f against Florida-bred stakes company, and then backed up a bit trying 8.5f. Last time out he ran a small 0.25 point new top at Monmouth and seems to be trending to a forward move. Bucchero offspring average five points of development from 2 to 3, and if that extra 4.75 all comes into focus today, he’d project to be faster than Brilliant Berti. The major question with him is distance, though the fact that he’s a speed horse stretching out on a turf course that could be less than firm may help his chances of lasting the mile. He is a half to some horses who were faster routers than sprinters, but at a likely shorter price thanks to the truncated field, I can’t quite get there to take him on top. I have respect for 9 Trikari, winner of the Belmont Derby who does have a nice pattern, but my reservations about that being a slow race still stand, and like his rivals running up in NY, he’s already developed quite a bit from 2 to 3, so it’s hard to tell what that next ceiling is. I’d rather take a little exposure to 2 Rock’n a Halo (Tom Amoss/Julien Leparoux) who on resume is too slow to win this race, but we also don’t have a firm gauge on what his level is given that he debuted at 3 and has essentially only paired his effort with one exception.
Race 10 - 1-6-4 | 1 3/16M (TURF) | Grade 2 Beverly D. Stakes 500k (3YO+)
There’s no doubt this G2 win-and-you’re-in for the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf will be a class test for 1 Libban (Saffie Joseph Jr./Edgard Zayas), but she has a pattern that suggests she may be ready to ace this test with a big forward move. Debuting at 3 and relatively lightly raced last year, she topped out at 6.75 on the TG scale and moved forward one whole point in her first start at 4. She’s then taken a slow round out of form figures-wise back into a pair of her top last time out. Thoro-Graph lists their numbers horizontally like a normal PP, but fast to slow figures are written from left to right in the margins, so you can physically see a horse like Libban round out of form, and back in. Laoban offspring often develop to a point where this one could be set to fire a 3 to four point new top here, and combined with a potential pace advantage drawing the rail, that could be enough to get the job done over a tough field of five. I really liked 6 Moira (Kevin Attard/Jose Ortiz) a win candidate first off a long layoff in the G1 Diana, and she helped me hit a home run finishing second to a runaway Whitebeam. She essentially paired up with her string of three consecutive 2s to end her 4YO campaign, and I still think she has that forward move that can get her to a 1 or maybe even a 0. She’s clearly the horse to beat, but I do think like in the Diana, she could be chasing after a loose leader and enters at a much-shorter price this time around. 4 Fev Rover (Mark Casse/Javier Castellano) is a logical second choice to the favorite having multiple efforts that put her right in line with Moira, and she tends to run from a more forwardly-placed position. She didn’t ever develop in six starts at 5, but she held form and still looks okay in two starts at 6. She still can move forward, and the pace may help, but I’m less enthusiastic about betting on a forward move from an older mare.
Race 11 - 6-1-4-2 | 1 1/4M (TURF) | Grade 1 Arlington Million Stakes 1M (3YO+)
The world-famous Arlington Million was the first million dollar purse in thoroughbred horse racing and it was established as one of the premier jewels of American turf racing when the people’s champion, the “Old Man” John Henry won the first and fourth renewals of this race en route to his two Horse of the Year campaigns in 1981 and ‘84. It was also a touchstone race in the 2019 HOY campaign of Bricks and Mortar who won the penultimate renewal at old Arlington Park. Colonial Downs fit like a glove as home to this illustrious race last year, and it’s nice to see that even the elements couldn’t prevent this from being a major part of the racing calendar for years to come.
This is another instance where I’m taking a shot on a forward-trending 4YO, 6 Talk of the Nation (Todd Pletcher/Jose Ortiz). At 3 this son of Quality Road was showing nice, steady progression leading up to a three point new top of 4 in the G3 Manila at Belmont Park. He then moved forward another point in a winning effort against 1M non graded stakes company at, you guessed it, Kentucky Downs, before bouncing a bit in his final stop at 3 at Keeneland. Pletcher wisely gave him the winter to recover having developed six points during his 3YO campaign, and he’s come out and paired his best in three efforts at 4. This guy has all the signs of a forward move and his pedigree backs him to improve the two points he would need to be a major player here. I also think he gets a significant pace advantage on the other prime contenders, a factor that could carry him to victory even if he doesn’t quite best the short priced favorites in his figure. 1 Integration (Shug McGaughey/Kendrick Carmouche) has run a new top or paired a top in each of his three efforts underneath Kendrick Carmouche, so it makes me very happy as a fan of both Shug and Kendrick to see Louisiana’s finest get the call for this spot. This guy was fast in three starts at three, topping out at a 3.5 in mid-November, and then bounced back off a disappointing effort on Pegasus day to run a two-point new top in the Maker’s Mark Mile, a race that was far better than it looks on paper. He unsurprisingly bounced a bit running back quickly in the G1 Turf Classic on Derby day, but he shipped back down to Colonial and paired his 1.5 top on preview day making him 3 for 3 over the course. He’s clearly improved as we expect from a 4YO grass horse and he clearly loves the track.
4 Nations Pride (Charlie Appleby/William Buick) shipped over to the states at 3 and immediately took significant strides forward, managing 11 points of development from 2 to 3. He was able to follow that up racing mostly overseas last year, getting down as far as a 1.5 on the TG scale while carrying that form from Dubai to Germany and then to Woodbine. After a small bounce he’s come back to the NYRA circuit and paired his best effort in two starts in the G2 Man O’ War and the G1 Manhattan. Each time he’s run into a horse on a slightly better day, and I think there’s a distinct chance that exact scenario can happen again today, but a pair of his best still puts him right in the mix. 2 Ancient Rome (Charlie Hills/Jamie Spencer) comes in off a very impressive TG 3 at Ascot, and his effort from early August 2023 at Goodwood gives him a solid base to move forward off of third off the layoff.
